NFL Week 12 Featured Game
Storylines: After a 1-3 start to their season, the Buccaneers have won 5 of there last 6 games and stand poised to deliver the Falcons their second loss of the season. As for Atlanta, they’re coming off yet another shaky performance against an underwhelming Arizona team, allowing the speculation to continue about whether or not the team is legitimate contenders or just perennial frauds. Can Tampa Bay up end Matt Ryan and Company or will Atlanta find way to squeak out another victory?
Talking Points:
- The Iceman vs The Swashbucklers- Up till last week’s 5 interception performance (two of which were deflections), Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan was having a career year. However, Matty Ice has been anything but solid against the Buccaneers. During his career at Tampa Bay, Ryan is completing only 53% of his passes, averaging under 155 ypg with 5TDs to 7INTs for a 55 QB rating. Ryan was slightly better in his only meeting against DC Bill Sheridan in 2009, throwing for a 87.9 QB rating in a 34-31 loss to the Giants.
- Easy Schedule or Legitimate Contenders?- Atlanta currently possesses the second best record in the NFL, but the Falcons have only played one team this season with a winning record (the Broncos). Additionally, five of the team’s nine wins have been decided by 6 points or less.
- Mr. Irrelevant- There was a time that Atlanta only went as far as the legs of running back Michael Turner took them. This season Turner is averaging nearly 1 yard less per carry and over 26 less yards per game. It’s little wonder then that the Falcons have the 28th ranking rushing attack and don’t expect things to change this week as the birds face the toughest rushing defense in the NFL.
- Tony Gonzalez The Difference Maker?- Gonzales continues to be one of Matt Ryan’s favorite and most reliable targets in the passing attack. However, it is interesting to note that when the Hall of Fame tight end has over 100 yards receiving in a game his teams are only 14-15. Though when Gonzales scores more than one touchdown in a game his teams are 12-5…i.e. if you’re the Bucs, let the man wrack up the yards, but just don’t let him score.
- Thursday Night Football- Next week the Falcons will host the Saints as part of NFL Network’s Thursday night football. So far this season teams are 5-6 in games before Thursday night contests and 1-3 when traveling the week before hosting the game.
- Something Has to Give- Atlanta has one of the worst rushing defenses in the league, allowing over 130 ypg and only twice have they held an opponent to less than 116 rushing yards. In Tampa Bay’s 6 wins this season, the team has averaged over 158 ypg on the ground and has never lost when they’ve accumulated more than 102 yards.
- How Great Are Josh Freeman’s Numbers?- After a disappointing 2011 campaign, Freeman is having a comeback year and the quarterback currently holds a 94.6 QB rating. That said, only twice this season has he faced a defensive ranked in the Top 15 (Dallas and Kansas City) and it seems unfair to give Freeman praise for having only beaten KC. Watch out because the Falcons possess the 7th ranked pass defense in the league.
- Coordinator Toss Up- An interesting note is that none of the offensive and defensive coordinators have faced each other before at the pro level. Anything could happen.
Keys to Victory: It’s still unclear to me whether the Bucs and Josh Freeman’s success on offense over the past few weeks has had more to do with their opponents defenses or Freeman finally understanding head coach Greg Schiano new system. Regardless, if Tampa Bay can continue to their success rushing the ball with rookie sensation Doug Martin and have Freeman play an efficient/nearly mistake free game the odds are in the Bucs favor. However, with Freeman under center the team is a meager 3-15 when the quarterback turns the ball over 2 or more times. You can expect that Falcons’ DE John Abraham and Safety Thomas DeCoud with be looking to increase their forced fumble and interception totals.
On the defensive side of the ball, Tampa Bay needs to find a way to consistently pressure Matt Ryan who has a 104.3 passer rating with zero pressures this season, but a 68 rating when pressured. Sacking Ryan isn’t always the key, but if the Bucs who are averaging over 12 pressures a game can keep up the heat then it should limit the Falcons ability to take advantage of a pass defense that is allowing a league worst of over 312 ypg. Tampa Bay might also receive some help in their pass defense with WR Julio Jones being questionable to play. Regardless, the Bucs need to continue what they’ve always been able to do at home against Matty Ice and limit the quarterback’s impact on the game.
Finally a word on the betting line…with this being a division contest and given the fact that the last three games between these two teams in Tampa Bay have averaged a total of only 37 ppg and a 5.7 margin of victory, it’s safe to assume this will yet again be a close affair. However, with each team’s defense having obvious flaws that each offense can take advantage of there is a strong temptation to take the over and I’m going with it as well as the Bucs to continue their hot hand.
Line: Falcons -1, 50.5 o/u
win, take the Bucs plus 1 and the over
Overall Record: 22-11 (66.6%)
- W-L: 8-3
- Line: 8-3
- O/U: 6-5
Beerbecue’s Beer Recommendation
Our friend/guru on all things related to beer, Mr. Beerbecue provides his biased, informative, and entertaining recommendation for your football fix. Check out all of his illuminating beer reviews at beerbecue.com.
Heavy Seas Below Decks (Baltimore, MD)
Luckily in 1997, Tampa Bay changed their logo from a winking pimp with conspicuously highly-tweezed eyebrows to something more pirate-themed. This cleared up my childhood misconceptions about what Buccaneers actually did for a living, and it allowed me the freedom to do something pirate-themed this weekend.
Below Decks pours a lovely mahogany and smells like caramel, toffee, and big-time dates. The taste adds molasses, other dark fruits, and some burnt brown sugar. It runs 10% ABV, so it’ll get you where you want to go (unless your destination is lame). It’s not the most complex barleywine, but it’s good. And it’s not like we need to be throwing down baller barleywines all the time like we’re some kind of bourgeoisie pimps.
Click here to visit Heavy Seas Brewery Website and you can follow them on Facebook & Twitter.
Post Thanksgiving Game Day Food Recommendations
Since the Week 12 Fix is coming the day after Thanksgiving I thought we’d mix things up a bit and offer up some tasty recipes for using up all those leftovers in your refrigerator…hence allowing the gluttony of Turkey Day to continue right up through game day. As always click on the image or titles to view each recipe.
Start you day off with a Stuffing Frittata from My Last Bite
Ya buddy…Open Faced Bruschettas from Savoring Every Bite
What would game day be without Leftover Turkey Nachos from Savoring Every Bite??
Start or finish off your day with some Cranberry Cookie Bars from Simply Cooking 101
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